The predictable surprise : the unraveling of the U.S. retirement system / Sylvester J. Schieber.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 383-421) and index.

Part I. Foundations and fault lines. Retirement USA ; Early motivations behind the pension movement -- Part II. Social security : the dream and reality. Development and passage of the Social Security Act ; Early concerns prove nagging and persistent ; Moving to pay-as-you-go financing ; A deal too good to last ; Operations under pay-as-you-go financing ; Crisis and reactions : conflict, consensus and surprise ; Sorting out the trust fund semantics and realities ; Policy stalemate at the demographic divide ; Understanding Social Security in modern times -- Part III. Employer-based pension provision. Employer pensions taking root ; Growing pains for private retirement plans ; ERISA : the transition to a new regulatory regime ; The 1980s : a decade of regulatory schizophrenia ; Good intentions gone awry ; Some good news ... or not ; The unfolding of a predictable defined benefit surprise ; And then, a predictable defined contribution surprise ; Public pensions : the good, the bad, and the ugly -- Part IV: Delivering benefits and providing retirement security. Retirement income security and workers' residuals ; End game : a gold watch, pat on the back, and more ; We've killed the goose, let's gild the eggs ; Tax benefits and benefit taxes ; Retiree health benefits : misfortune or malpractice -- Part V. Truth and consequences. The fellow behind the tree ; Securing the Social Security foundation ; Securing tax-favored benefits and living standards ; Remembering the future -- Glossary.

In "The Predictable Surprise", Sylvester J. Schieber shows that forewarnings of the coming retirement crisis have been apparent for decades, but we have never mustered the political will to address the problem. This book explains how we have gotten into the retirement predicament and where we can go from here.